"I Just Can't See It..."

One of the most reliable ways to find value in football (and I am sure most sports) is to back against an out-of-form big name. They don’t come much bigger than Real Madrid who no matter how they are playing always seem to get too much kudos from the bookies. I suppose one reason is that bookies are largely funded by the lazy gambler who regularly looks to the big names at short odds when trying to find their weekend winners. If the betting public are going to put most of their money on the Madrids, Lyons and Celtics regardless of form then why should the bookies change their tactics? Why does the average punter do this? I think one reason is the “I just cannot see it” syndrome. A punter may see good value odds, but then says to himself “I just cannot see Madrid losing to Racing at home” (1-2, 21/12/05) or “I just cannot see Lens, unbeaten for 20 matches, losing at home to Nancy” (1-2, 11/01/06) and even though they realise the odds are generous they talk themselves out of the bet. Well this weekend Madrid take on Sevilla at home and once again look vulnerable, yet the bookies are offering some very tasty prices against them:
Madrid have been behind at the break in 4 home matches this season, yet Sevilla can backed to lead at HT @ 21/4 with Spodds;
Madrid have already lost 4 times at home from 9 games this season, yet Sevilla are 11/2 with Stan James to win;
Madrid have incredibly conceded the opening goal in SIX out of NINE home games this season. Sevilla have scored the opener FIVE times out of NINE (including the opener at the Camp Nou!) and yet are 12/5 with BlueSq to score the opener on Sunday.

Statistically, none of these odds make sense and while there is no guarantee that they are winners, they are undoubtedly good value.