Weekends RECOMMENDED bets

SATURDAY
Birmingham v Chelsea
team to score first
HOME
7/2
BetFred
Sometimes a bet looks ridiculous when it loses, but genius when it wins. Birmingham are 54 points behind Chelsea in the league and are in a 3-way battle for 2 relegation spots (sorry Sunderland, yer gonnas). Chelsea were more or less crowned Champions in November. But in their last 5 away games they have conceded the first goal at Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Fulham. The price looks value enough for Birmingham to snatch a shock opener.

Bolton v Man Utd
match winner
HOME
16/5
Bsq
Bolton v Man Utd
ht result
HOME
4/1
Bsq
Bolton's home record is up there with the best of them this season and they always relish a visit from the big guns. The only away team to score in the first half at the Reebok this season has been (surprisingly) Fulham. Bolton have lead at the break in half of their 14 home matches. Man U are Man U: always expected to win and usually do. But they can be beaten on the road, as City, Blackburn and Middlesbrough have shown. West Ham also led them at the break at Upton Park. Of course Man U are not be expected to lose here, but Bolton's home record indicates that their odds should not be this big. Both the HT and the FT odds look great value to me.

Gent v Brugge
ht result
HOME
13/5
Bet365
AA Gent have a pretty strong home record, and have lead in 3 of their last 5 at home at HT. Brugge have been behind at the break in half of their 14 away matches this season, so shouldn't Gent be closer to evens to take a HT lead in this game? 13/5 definitely looks worth a try to me.

SUNDAY
Udinese v Parma
match winner
AWAY
15/4
Bet365
I cannot figure these odds out at all. Udinese have lost 4 of their last 6 at home, 8 from 16 overall at home this season, and after qualifying for the Champions League last season, now find themselves in a relegation place with 7 games of the season left. Parma's last 5 away games (following a run of 1 point from their first 10 games) has seen 4 wins and a draw (at Juventus). It doesn't get much better than that. They have scored the opener in their last 8 away matches (also great value to do so here at 9/5 with Bet365). So why are they nearly 4/1 to win this match? I can't explain it, but I am happy to take the odds.

Deportivo v Racing
match winner
AWAY
4/1
Bet365
Yes, time for another crack at Deportivo. I keep on backing them away and oppposing them at home when the odds look big, but I haven't had any success yet. I came close with Malaga a week and a bit ago, but they couldn't hold onto their HT lead. I also tried with Sociedad to lead at HT, but they frustrated me by scoring the only goal of the game 2 mins into the second half. So can Racing make it up on Sunday? Why not, their away form is actually not too shabby, only 4 defeats in 15 games and they actually have as many points away from home as Deportivo do at home. That makes the 4/1 odds look a bit, well, odd. And Racing can also win at the toughest places: they have wins this season at Madrid, Getafe and Espanyol. OK, Espanyol has not been that tough a place to go this season, but still the potential is there. Deportivo's home form I covered on here last time and sneaking a win over bottom club Malaga does not convince me that they are good enough to be such strong favourites here.