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Wednesday, June 27, 2007

%age games started to %age games won: a ratio for each player

Been playing with stats again and have looked at each player in the Prem to see if any have any outstanding effects on team results. Looking specifically at whether the team wins or not when each player is in the starting eleven.

Eg1 Adebayor started 12 home games (last season) and Arsenal won 8 of them, so he started in a winning team 67%.

Eg2 Petrov (Villa) started 15 home games and 3 of them were wins, giving him 20%.

Taking it a step further I then compared each players rate to the teams record over the season (to give a more balanced picture).

Eg1 Arsenal won 12 of 19 home games last season, i.e. 63%. Comparing Adebayors 67% to Arsenals 63% gives a ratio of 1.06.

Eg2 Villa won 37% of home games, making Petrovs ratio 20:37 = 0.54

In other words, a ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the player had a negative effect on team results, while a ratio of more than 1.00 indicates a positive effect.
Any player playing in all games would of course have a ratio of exactly 1.00

The results could well be totally meaningless (with so many other variables to consider eg quality of opposition; other players missing), but are interesting nonetheless (atleast to a stat-super-nerd like me).

It seems sensible also to filter the results with some sort of minimum games played qualification.

Selected results (minimum 9 games started)

Worst ratio HOME
Steven Carr (Newcastle) 0.45
Started 12 home games and featured in only 2 wins.

Best ratio HOME
Valencia (Wigan) 1.69
Started in 9 home games and featured in 4 wins (not bad considering Wigan won 5/19 at home)

Worst ratio AWAY
Sissoko (Liverpool) 0.32
Of the 10 away games in which Sissoko started, Liverpool managed 1 win.
*there were actually 15 players who had a ratio of 0.00, having never started in an away win (special mention to £16m man Darren Bent who with 15 starts had the most appearances in the group of zeros).

Best ratio AWAY
Three players with a ratio of 2.11:
Rommedhal of Charlton qualifies (and shows why the results of this should be taken with a pinch of the proverbial) by way of starting in 9 away games, one of which was their only away win of the season.
Both Collins and Tevez of West Ham started in 9 away games, and in all 4 of West Hams away wins.

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