Serie A fixtures

Four or five fixtures in Serie A tonight that look decent value for an overs (more than 2.5 goals in the game) bet. Serie A games are averaging 2.642 goals per game so far this season so perhaps that is not surprising.

I recommend a bet on Chievo v Juve to go over @ evens with VC Bet. This bet would have won in 7 out of Juve’s 9 away matches this season. This seems to be tied to the fact that Juve play every away game to win and are not adverse to conceding goals (7 in their last 5). Chievo have a good home record which includes a 2-1 win over Milan. 4 of their last 6 home games have gone over.

In the same match there are interesting statistics on the distribution of the goals. In 7 of Juve’s 9 away games there have been more goals in the 1st half than in the second. Again this could be a reflection of Juve’s aggressive style of play away from home. They do not appear to start games with much caution and hence goals at either end are a regular occurence in the first 45 of their games. I recommend a bet on the very generous offer of 9/4 on their being more goals in the first half, with Stan James.

In the same market, Milan v Ascoli has also tempted me. Bet365 offer 2/1 and I recommend this is taken. Milan have actually scored 18 of their 27 home goals this season in the first half. They, like Juventus, seem to start strongly in an effort to kill the game early. In their first 5 home games of the season there were more goals in the first half, but then this has happened only once in the last 4. Ascoli’s away record seems to make up for this however – their last 4 away games have all seen most goals in the first 45. Ascoli concede first half goals regularly (only 2 clean sheets away from home) and this seems to fit perfectly into Milan’s style. It seems to me that evens would be a fairer price here so the 2/1 really has to be taken!