Interesting trends

Something interesting I noticed today while looking at the Wigan - Newcastle fixture: since drawing 0-0 away to Portsmouth in October 2005, Newcastle have drawn only 3 times in 29 away fixtures. In the 41 matches previous to that (going back to the start of 2003-04 season, they had drawn 19 times). Of course this timespan covers 3 different managers. During this period (start of that season to present) 21 away games under Robson resulted in 13 draws; 30 away games under Souness, 7 draws; 20 away games under Roeder, 3 draws. If anything, this shows how important managers are when looking at historical trends.

Newcastle's next away match is at Charlton. Should I lay the draw (typically around 3,50)?

Let's look at Charlton's home record. 17 home draws in last 71 home games (1 every 4.2 games, which is pretty much the average statistically over the last 3 Prem seasons). Under Curbishley it was 14 in 57 (1 in 4.1); 2 in 9 under Dowie and Reed; 1 in 5 under Pardew.

Nothing much in Charltons stats to suggest they are likely to draw at home more than average. This fixture has finished in a draw twice in the last 3 seasons, but should we ignore those results as Pardew's Charlton v Roeder's Newcastle is a new fixture? One other thing to consider is that Charlton are in a desperate battle to beat the drop. They are 3rd bottom, 6 pts from safety and really need to win their home games against beatable opposition to have any chance of staying up.