Prem w/e 3/4 March

Arsenal v Reading

Arsenal have scored the last goal in all 13 home matches, but Reading have scored it in 4 of last 5 away, including at Man U and Chelsea.

Arsenal conceded the first goal 8/13 at home, Reading scored it in 2 of last 3 away.

Arsenal's topscorers at home are van Persie and Henry (6), vP has scored in 3 of last 4. vP has scored 11 times this season, but yet to score the first goal. Reading's Doyle and Lita each have 4 away goals, Lita's all come in last 5 games, Doyle hasn't scored away since 25 Nov.

Arsenal's last 6 home games have all been overs; 3 of Reading's last 5 have been overs, including the games at Man U and Chelsea, Reading managing to score twice in both matches.

Bet: Lita to score @ 4.2
Bet loses.


Fulham v Villa

Fulham have not conceded the opening goal in last 7 at home, and have not scored the last goal in the last 8. In fact they have conceded the last goal 9/14 at home and in all last 3; Villa scored it in 4 of last 7.

Fulham have only 1 win in last 5 at home, but Villa have now lost 5 on the bounce away.

Top scorer at home is McBride with 5 goals, 2 in his last 3.

6 of Villa's last 7 away have gone over; Fulham go over only 5 times in 14 at home, but their last 2 at home have been overs.

Historically (3 seasons), bearing in mind that these stats are for O'Leary's Villa (most recent last):
1-2, 1-1, 3-3
Fulham have not beaten Villa at home, despite opening the scoring in 2 out of 3. Last season finished 3-3 with 2 goals each for McBride and Ridgewell. Villa scored last in 2/3. Overs in 2/3.

Bet: Villa to score last goal @ 2.25 (Sporting Odds)
Bet loses, 1-1 final score, but Villa led.

Liverpool v Man Utd

Liverpool have 9 straight clean sheets at Anfield and 7 wins in those 9. Man U failed to score in only 1 of 14 away games, at West Ham in December.

Kuyt has 7 home goals, but only 2 in last 6. Bellamy has only 2 goals at home and has not scored since Dec. Ronaldo has 6 away goals and has scored in 4 of last 5.

6 unders in Pool's last 9 at home, but Man U have 11/14 overs away this season, including all last 5.

Historically, Benitez's Liverpool have yet to score against Man U at Anfield, losing 0-1 in his first season and drawing 0-0 lat season.

Bet: Liverpool clean sheet @ 3.20 (Sporting Odds) Even against Man Utd, these odds are just too big for a team that has conceded only 3 goals in 14 matches.
Bet loses, 91st minute goal for Utd!

Man City v Wigan

After going unbeaten at home for the first 8 games of the season, City now have 4 losses in 5 at home, 3 of them by more than 1 goal. They started the season with 6 straight clean sheets but have only 1 clean sheet in last 7 at home. Wigan have lost 4 of last 6 away, but have scored 1st in 3 of those maches. Wigan have failed to score in only 2 away games this season (Portsmouth and Chelsea).

4 of Wigan's last 5 away have been overs; 3 of City's last 5 at home overs also.

Wigan won the corresponding fixture 0-1 last season with a 55th minute McCulloch goal. Be aware though that Wigan's away form was a lot better last season: they averaged 1.42 points per game and ended with 4th best away record in the Prem. This season they have averaged 0.86 pts per game.

Bet: lay Man City to score first goal @ 2 (for £2.11)
Bet wins thanks to a 18th minute opener for Folan of Wigan.

Newcastle v Boro

After conceding the last goal in 4 of 6 opening games, Newcastle have scored the last goal in their last 8 at home. They are unbeaten in those 8 matches. Boro have scored the last goal only twice in 14 away games. Boro have 1 win in 14 away this season.

Newcastle scored 1st in 10/14 at home, but only once in last 3; Boro have not scored the opener in last 7 away, in fact have manged it only 3x in 14. (Beware, West Ham scored the opener recently at SJP, after having not scored in 9 straight away games previous).

Newcastle have no clean sheets in last 7 at home.

Newcastle's last 7 at home have been overs, as have 5 of Boro's last 7 away.

First meeting for Roeder v Southgate, but the last 5 season's have seen little reward for Boro on Tyneside: (most recent first) 2-2, 0-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-0

No bets.

Portsmouth v Chelsea

Portsmouth's win over Man City was first home win in 4. Chelsea have won 4 in last 6. Portsmouth have lost only twice at home this season (Bolton, Charlton), but have yet to host any of the big 4.

Kanu has 7 goals at home, but only 1 in last 5, also in the win over Man City. While Drogba leads the goalscorers charts with 17 this season, only 2 have come away from home. Lampard top scores for Chelsea with 7, and 3 in last 5.

9/13 Chelsea away games have been under, including all last 3. 3 of Portsmouths last 4 have been unders.

Historically, fixture has been played 3x and Chelsea have won all 0-2, although only the Feb 2004 meeting was against Redknapp's Portsmouth, and Chelsea were then managed by Ranieri.

Bet: Lay Drogba to score @ 2.30, £2.60 to win £1.90.
Bet loses, Drogba completes miserable day by scoring only his 7th goal away from home since Aug 2004.

Sheff Utd v Everton

Everton have 4 cleans sheets in last 5 away, and 3 wins in last 6. Utd have failed to score at home 3/14 (Blackburn, Chlesea, Man City) and have won 3 of last 4 at home.

Everton scored the last goal in first 4 away games, then conceded it in the next 5, and have now not conceded it in their last 5.

Rob Hulse scored his first goal in 8 home matches last time out v Spurs and is Utd's top home scorer with 5. 4 of last 5 home games have been unders, 3 of Everton's last 5 away also unders. 10/14 away games for Everton have been under.

No bets.

Watford v Charlton

Watford have to start winning their home games, but have only 1 win in last 6 at home, and only 2 all season. Charlton have lost 11/14 away, but most recently beat Portsmouth and drew at Bolton before going down 2-0 at Old Trafford.

No bets.

Bolton v Blackburn

Bolton are unbeaten in 6 at home; Blackburn have lost their last 3 on the road. Blackburn have never lost 4 on the trot away from home under Hughes (35 games).

6 of Blackburns last 7 away games have been overs, the 1 under was their last game, at Everton. 4 of Bolton's last 7 at home have gone over.

Anelka top-scores for Bolton at the Reebok with 5, but has not scored in last 3.

Bolton don't seem to like playing their Lancashire rivals at home: they have not beaten them in last 5 seasons. Against Hughes' Blackburn Allardyces Bolton have yet to score at home (0-1, 0-0).

Bet: Lay Bolton @ 2.18, risk £2.49 to win £2.00
Bet wins, Blackburn continue their excellent run at the Reebok with a 2-1 win.

West Ham v Spurs

West Ham and manager Curbishley seem resigned to relegation. Since beating Man U in December the Hammers have 1 pt from 5 home games, and have conceded the 1st goal in all 5. Spurs managed only their 2nd away win of the season at Everton last time out. Jenas scored for the second away game in a row (and became Spurs' leading away scorer for the season!) while Berbatov netted his first league goal away from the Lane. Spurs have opened the scoring in their last 2 away matches.

No bets.