Prem, 14 Mar

Villa v Arsenal

Villa have only 3 defeats at home this season, all of which came during a dodgy patch in November and December, when they lost to Man City, Bolton and Man Utd. They followed that up however by holding Chelsea 0-0 and now have 3 clean sheets on the trot at home.

Arsenal have 3 away wins in their last 5, beating Wigan, Watford and Blackburn. Overall this season they have 6 away wins from 13 matches. Combined with Villa's 3 losses, a lay of Arsenal anywhere below 2.00 looks OK.

unmatched @ 1.70

Unders look likely in this game. Villa's home games go 10 under, 3 over (Reading, City and Man U); while 5 of Arsenal's last 6 away have gone under too. This fixture has gone under 3x in last 5 seasons, but of course this is MO'N first season as Villa manager.

unmatched @ 2.10

Man City v Chelsea

Drogba scored his 7th away goal in 3 seasons last time out at Portsmouth. He has never scored in consecutive league away games for Chelsea.

Lay Drogba to score, unmatched @ 2.20

Fixture has yielded 1 goal in each of the last 3 seasons. Under Mourinho 35% of Chelsea's 52 away fixtures have yielded less than 2 goals (29% this season). Under Pearce 40% of Man City's 37 home fixtures have yielded less than 2 goals (50% this season).

Under 1.5 goals can be backed @ 3.45 on BF, but I have split stakes between 1-0, 0-1 and no first goalscorer at 3 different bookies to give odds of around 3.70. Better odds as well as a small chance that either team could win 1-0 with an own goal being scored, which would double the return.

Bet: under 1.5 goals @ ca 3.70
Bet wins, 0-1 to Chelsea.