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Saturday, March 17, 2007

Prem, w/e 17/18 March

Blackburn v West Ham

Hammers scored in 1 of last 12 away games; but Blackburn have only 3 clean sheets at home in 14 matches (Fulham, Liverpool, Portsmouth (last time out)).

Blackburn won 4 of last 5 at home and Hammers have lost 11 from 14 away this season. Anything over 1.7 (RV 1.59) on Blackburn looks value...

Unmatched: home win @ 1.90

Chelsea v Sheff Utd

Last 5 homes for Chelsea have been overs; last 5 away for Sheff Utd have been overs.

Drogba has scored in 11 games with 13 starts at home (Bet: Drogba to score @ 2.10).

Utd have scored 1 goal in each of 6 of last 7 away matches, the blank last time out at Liverpool spoiling the run.
Bet loses. Drogba surprisingly starts on the bench, comes on after 64mins with the score @ 3-0, has a couple of shots but fails to score.

Man Utd v Bolton

7 wins on the bounce at home for Utd, 21 goals scored. The 2-0 win over Charlton last time out ended a run of 6 consecutive overs. 3 of Bolton's last 4 away have been overs, rogerings for the Trotters at Liverpool (3-0), Boro (5-1) and Spurs (4-1).

Of Utd's 12 home wins this season, 10 have been by more than 1 goal. Top scorer at home is Ronaldo, who has scored in his last 6 matches at home.

Utd have won this fixture 3/3 (all by more than 1 goal), but lost the 2 previous to that. Not many teams have back-to-back wins at Old Trafford on their CV!

Ronaldo scored twice in this fixture last season (4-1), and also netted in the reverse fixture this season (0-4).

Utd have been winning at HT in 11/14 at home, and were also leading in this fixture at HT last 3 seasons.

Only two teams have scored in the 1st half against Utd this season at OT: Reading and Fulham.

Boro v Man City

Boro have won 4/5 at home and have scored 1st in 5/5. Yakubu has scored in 5/6, Viduka in 3/4. Together they share 14/21 goals that Boro have scored at home this season.

City's away form is decent, despite their woes at home. They have 7 points from last 12, losing last time out to Portsmouth.

Reading v Portsmouth

Reading have won their last 4 at home, scoring 14 goals. Portsmouth have 1 point from last 4 away, a 1-1 draw at Sheff Utd.

Reading are 3rd in the HT table. Only Man U and Chelsea have more 1st half wins at home. Portsmouth have been trailing in 5 out of 14 away, and 3 of last 4.
Bet: Reading to lead at HT, 2.80 @ expekt (RV 1.99)
Bet loses, 0-0 at the break.

Spurs v Watford

Looks like a no-brainer with Spurs in good form and Watford as good as down. Watford have only trailed at HT once in last 8 away matches and that was at Man Utd. Spurs have led at HT only 6x in 14 home matches this season (once in last 5 matches, last time out v Bolton). unmatched lay Spurs to lead at HT @ 1.85.

Wigan v Fulham

Wigan followed their horrendous run of 6 consecutive home losses with 2 recent 1-0 wins v Portsmouth and then Newcastle. Fulham, after 3 consecutive draws, have lost at Sheff Utd and then Bolton. Wigan won this fixture last season, 1-0.

5 of Fulham's last 6 away have been overs, but Wigan's last 3 at home have been unders.

10/14 of Wigan's home matches have featured less than 2 goals; but only 1 of Fulham's 14 away have done so (0-0 at Spurs). Last season Wigan had 6/19 under 2. Fulham have 13/57 last 3 seasons.
Note: Result: 0-0


18 March
Villa v Liverpool

Liverpool have won 5/last 7 away and scored the opener in 6 of them (3x Bellamy (Bet: Bellamy 1st goalscorer, £0.50 @ 7.00, expekt). Villa's loss at home to Arsenal made it 4 losses in 7 and 4 blanks. 'Pool won here 2-0 last season and scored first the season previous, in the 1-1 draw.
Bet loses, no goals in the game.

Charlton v Newcastle

Toon have lost 5/last 6 away. Charlton are hanging on at the bottom and will see this as a must win game against vulnerable opponents. Last season's fixture was won by Charlton, but they were showing a lot better form then. No clean sheets for Newcastlte their last 8 away, have to fancy Darren Bent, back from injury and back on the scoresheet last time out v West Ham, to net here. He has scored in half the home games he has started this season. (Bet: D. Bent to score @ 3.00, Coral).
Bents starts.
Bet loses. Plenty of action for Bent, but no goals.

Everton v Arsenal

I got nothing.

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