Prem rd 31

31st March

Bolton (5th in table, 10th in HOME table) v Sheff Utd (17th in table, 16th in AWAY table)
Situation: Match is VITAL for both.
Bolton are fighting hard for a UEFA Cup place, facing stiff competition for 5th place from Everton, Spurs and Reading. Sheff Utd are in danger of slipping back into a relegation place, Charlton now only 4 pts behind. Both sides still have plenty to play for.

Stats at a glance:
Bolton have 3 wins in last 6 at home, lost last time out to Blackburn. Sheff Utd have lost last 6 away, 5 of them by >1 goal. All 6 defeats were overs. Bolton haven't won by >1 goal since they beat West Ham 4-0, 7 matches ago. 4 of Bolton's last 6 at home have gone over.

Bolton have had 3 consecutive overs once in the last 4 seasons - this season, West Ham, Newcastle and Portsmouth.
NO BETS

Charlton (18th, 16th) v Wigan (16th, 9th)
Situation: Match is VITAL for both.
Charlton can see a glimmer of light in the fight against relegation. 4 pts behind Sheff Utd, and a win here would pu them within 3 pts of Wigan. A win for Wigan would be a huge step for them towards safety. Plenty to play for here for both sides.

Stats at a glance:
Charlton have won their last 2 at home to nil, scoring 6 goals. Jerome Thomas (4.00 Coral) has scored in both (6 starts at home). Wigan recorded their first away win in 7 games at Man City last time out. They have scored the 1st goal (2.50 Bsq) in 3 of last 4 away, 9/15 for the season (10/19 last season).

5/last 7 at home for Charlton were overs, but only 1 in last 3. 4/ last 7 of Wigan's away games were overs, but both of last 2 unders.

Darren Bent (2.62 Coral) has scored in 6 home games from 13 starts. Henri Camara (3.25 Coral) has scored in 3 away games from 7 starts.

Both teams have 9 HT draws from 15 fixtures.

Last season this was the first game of the season for both sides, ended in a 1-0 win for Charlton, thanks to Darren Bents 42nd minute goal.
Bet: Wigan to score first @ 2.50 (Bsq) LOST

Fulham (14th, 14th) v Portsmouth (9th, 12th)
Situation: Match is IMPORTANT for both.
Fulham are 7 pts clear of 18th place, but will not yet feel comfortable. Will want to win these home games to clear any lingering thoughts of getting drawn into the relagation scrap. Portsmouth have been top 6 for most of the season, but their away form has really let them down and they are now in danger of slipping into mid-table anonymity. A win would put them right back in the race for a UEFA Cup place.

Stats:
Fulham have lost only once at home in last 8, to Man Utd. 4 draws in that run. 6 home wins from 15 matches, all by 1 goal, 2x 1-0 and 4x 2-1. Last season Fulham won 13x at home, 11 of those wins were by 1 goal, 6x 1-0, 5x 2-1. Portsmouth have only 1 away win in last 12 (at West Ham). Have 2 pts to show from last 5 away. Portsmouth have lost 7/15 away this season, only at Blackburn and Man U have lost by more than 1 (both 3-0).

Fulham have 11/15 HT draws at home this season (highest in division), last 6 at home at HT have all been draws. Previous longest run in 3 previous seasons was 4 (Jan - Mar 05). Portsmouth have drawn 7/15.

Fulham are struggling for goals at home, 14 from 15 matches. Only Watford and Man City have scored less. They have failed to score at home 5x. Portsmouth began the season with 3 consecutive clean sheets away, but since then have only 2: at Liverpool in November, and last time out at Reading (both matches ended 0-0).

This match has been won with a 2 goal advantage in all 3 meetings in Portsmouth's Premiership lifetime. In 2003-04 Fulham won 2-0 thanks to a Saha brace; in 04-05 Fulham won 3-1 with LuaLua netting for the visitors; and last season that scoreline was reversed thanks to 2 goals for Gary O'Neil and 1 for LuaLua again. There have been no HT draws in any of these matches.
Bets: Correct score: 1-0 @ 8.00, 2-1 @ 11.00, 3-2 @ 48.00 all LOST

Liverpool (4th, 3rd) v Arsenal (3rd, 3rd)
Situation: Match is IMPORTANT for both.
Realistically Liverpool and Arsenal now battle between themselves for 3rd and 4th place. Both places qualify for the CLq round, so only pride at stake really.

Stats:
Arsenal's record against the big 2 is good: a win at Man U and a draw at Chelsea. Liverpool beat Chelsea at home, but lost to Man U.

Arsenal's last 5 away have been unders. In last 3 seasons Arsenal have had more than 5 unders in a row away only once (last season, 8 in a row). In both 2003-04 and 04-05 they had a run of 5 unders in a row away. 3/last 5 at home for Liverpool unders too. This fixture has been overs 4/last 5 seasons, last season being the exception.

Kuyt has scored in 6 home matches, has made 12 starts. Scored the opener against Chelsea. With Henry and van Persie missing (scored together two-thirds of Arsenal away goals), Arsenal's most likely scorer is Adebayor, who has made 6 starts away and has scored in 2 matches.
UM: over 2.5 goals @ 2.70 (3-0 after 60 mins. Could have bet the overs @ 2.52)

Man Utd (1st, 1st) v Blackburn (10th, 7th)
Situation: Match is VITAL for Man Utd, IMPORTANT for Blackburn
Man U 6 pts clear at the top but know that they cannot ease up until Chelsea are mathematically out of it. Blackburn are 6pts behind Everton in 6th place and UEFA Cup qualification.

Stats:
Man U have won 7/last 8 at home by >1 goal. [In last 3 seasons Man U have won 37 of 57 home matches, 23 of which by >1 goal. However in that time they have never managed to win more than 4 consecutive matches by >1 goal. Current run is 4.] In 15 matches, only 3x failed to score more than 1 goal. 7/last 8 have been overs. Have led in 12/15 matches at HT. Avg time of 1st goal is 27 mins. [Last 3 season's avg is 38mins].

7/last 8 of Blackburn's away games have been overs. Fixture has gone over 4/last 5 seasons.

Park has scored in his last 3 starts at home for Man U. Ronaldo has scored in 8 games, started 12. Rooney has only scored in 4 home matches, in 14 starts. In his previous 2 seasons he has scored in 5 home matches in each. Not sure how many he started though. Only scored in consecutive home games once for Utd.

Blackburn won this fixture last season, Pedersen grabbing a brace in a 2-1 victory.
UM: Blackburn AH +1.5 @ 2.20 would have lost as Utd came from 0-1 down to win 4-1. Price came nowhere near 2.00, nevermind 2.20
UM: Lay Rooney to score @ 2.10 would have won, Rooney could have been laid around 2.30

Newcastle (11th, 11th) v Man City (15th, 10th)
Situation: Match is NORMAL for Newcastle, IMPORTANT for Man City.
Newcastle are more or less out of the race for Europe, 9 pts and 5 places below 6th. City have the same pts as Wigan, but have a game in hand. Still need pts to ensure Prem football next season.

Stats:
Newcastle are unbeaten now in 9 at home, equalling their best run of the previous 3 seasons (at the end of the 2003-04 season). Before the 0-0 last time out v Boro, they had gone 7 overs in a row. 6x in the last 3 seasons Newcastle have drawn 0-0 at home, 5x the following match was an under.

City's away form is very good, 4 wins in 7, only defeats at Man U and Portsmouth. 4 unders in last 6 away.

Newcastle have won this fixture 4/4 since City's return to the Prem. Michael Owen (remember him?) scored the winner in last seasons 1-0 home win.
Bet: Man City to win @ 4.50 WIN
UM: under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 would have won (0-1), could have been backed around 1.75.

Watford (last, last) v Chelsea (2nd, 2nd)
Situation: Match is IMPORTANT for Watford, VITAL for Chelsea.
Watford are 11 points adrift at the bottom, with 8 games to play. Really need to win all of their 4 remaining home games to have any chance of staying up. Chelsea are 6 pts adrift of Man U and know they need to keep winning to have any chance of catching them.

Stats:
Chelsea have been leading last 3 away 1-0 at HT. Chelsea have never had a run of 4 consec. away HT wins in the last 3 seasons. Watford only trailed at the break 2x at home this season (Liverpool and Everton). 10 HT draws for them from 15 matches.

Watford have lost 6x at home this season, to all of the current top 6 (barring Chealsea) and to Sheff Utd.

Drogba's strike rate in away games continues to interest me. He has 21% this season: 3 games in 14 starts. In comparison, Lampard has a 47% rate, 8 games scored, 15 starts. He has the 1st goal in away matches 6x this season.

Chelsea's last 5 aways have been unders. Only 4 overs in 15 away matches this season. Total of 37 from 53 away matches under Mourinho have been unders. But only 2 from 6 against relegated sides have been unders.
BET: Lay Chelsea HT win @ 1.81 WIN (0-0)
BET: Lay Drogba to score @ 2.24 WIN

West Ham (19th, last) v Middlesbrough (12th, 17th)
Match is VITAL for West Ham, NORMAL for Boro.
West Ham are 8 pts adrift of safety and like Watford must feel they need to win all home games to have a chance of staying up. Boro are 1pt behind Newcastle and all that is left to play for is the NE championship!

Stats:
1 point for West Ham from their last 6 home games. Boro have only 1 away win all season. 4 goalless draws for Boro away this season. Only Birmingham have more in a season (5) in the last 3 seasons (2003-04). No nil-nils for West Ham at home this season. 2 last season.
NO BETS

1st April
Tottenham (7th, 5th) v Reading (8th, 8th)
Match is VITAL for both sides.
1 pt and 1 place seperates the sides, both right in the chase for UEFA Cup place.
BET: match draw @ 3.80 Lost (1-0)

Stats:
12 matches since there was a draw at WHL (previous longest stretch under Jol was 7) (9 draws in 47 matches under Jol). 10 of those matches have been overs. Spurs have not kept a clean sheet at home for 10 matches (15 cs in 47 home games under Jol). Reading last failed to score away 7 matches ago at Watford. Reading have benefited from 3 own goals in their last 6 away. Lita has scored in 3 of his last 6 starts away.

16/47 home games under Jol have resulted in >3.5 goals. Last 4 home matches have been >3.5. Unlikely that they will go 5 in a row, never before gone 4 in a row under Jol.

2nd April
Aston Villa (13th, 12th) v Everton (6th, 6th)
Match is IMPORTANT for Villa, VITAL for Everton.
Villa need a couple more wins to put any thoughts of relegation behind them. Everton are right in the chase for UEFA places, every pt is vital for them.

Everton's away form is very good. 3 wins in last 6, a 0-0 draw at Liverpool and only 1 goal conceded in last 4 away. Villa are tough to beat at home: 1 defeat in last 5 (Arsenal) and only 1 goal conceded. Villa have faced the top 5 in the division in their last 7 at home and failed to score against all 5. Everton have 4 clean sheets in their last 6 away. Everton kept 7 clean sheets away last season while averaging 1.16 ppg on their travels. This season so far they have 5 cs, avg 1.20 ppg. However in 04-05 they managed only 5 cs and ppg was 1.21.

Everton have scored the last goal 9/15 this season and in 5/ last 6. Villa have conceded last goal 5/15 at home.

No team has more unders at home than Villa this season (12). No team has more unders than Everton away (11). Over last 3 season's Everton go 32/57 unders away (7, 11, 14).

So many stats there but can't find any value on any of the markets. Instead going for something that is due at big odds. Everton have no games over 3.5 goals in away matches this season. Last season they had 4, season before that 7. Longest run previous to this season was 7 without an over. Last 4 seasons: 4-0, 1-3, 0-0, 3-2 (but of course this is MONs 1st season)
Bet: Lay under 3.5 goals @ 1.25 Lost (1-1)