Think differently

While there has been so much time between matches recently I have been spending extra time looking at trends, short-term and long-term. Eg, Lampard scores 1st goal in 6/14 matches, therefore it seems obvious to back him @ 7.00 to do so again in his next match. But checking back over the last 3 seasons he has scored on avg the 1st goal once every 7 matches, so the odds are about right from that aspect. The thing that struck me though is that all the bookies have this information and more and they are experts at setting the price on these markets. Over the long term they surely have the edge over me.

So I have found myself looking instead for trends that are due to be broken. Eg Newcastle are unbeaten in 9 at home, and this equals their best run in 3 seasons. So they are due a loss. Coupled with other factors (opponents (City) have more to play for, are in decent form away, Newcastle in poor form and spirits generally) the odds of 4.50 on Newcastle losing look well worth a shout. It's a little bit less obvious than saying Newcastle are unbeaten in 9 so City cannot be value at 4.50.

This theory should be evident in the bets I place for wk31 of Prem. For one, I have ditched all goalscorer bets that I was thinking of as I am sure the bookies know exactly what they are doing in this market. Eg Darren Bent looks value at 2.62 when he has scored in every other match he has started this season at home, but I am sure the bookies know what they are doing here and unless someone offers me something like 3.00 on BF I will not take the bet.