Prem 7th April

Arsenal (4th, 4th) v West Ham (19th, 20th)
Match is IMPORTANT for Arsenal, VITAL for West Ham.
West Ham are desperate for points, 5 pts behind Sheff Utd and safety. Picking up anything from Arsenal would also give a welcome confidence boost. Arsenal are plodding along to the end of the season, keeping an eye on Bolton who are 5 pts behind them in 4th, while trying to claim victory in the battle for 3rd place with Liverpool.

23 matches since Arsenal failed to score at home (0-0 v Man U). 3 matches since Arsenal had a clean sheet at home. Never had a run of 4 in the last 2 seasons, but they did have so twice in season 03-04. West Ham have only scored in 4 away matches all season, though they did find the net last time out in the 2-1 win at Blackburn.

Arsenal 7 overs in a row at home, equalling their highest run of the last 3 seasons. 4 of the 6 West Ham away games since Curbs took over have been overs.

Arsenal's record against eventually relegated teams over the last 3 seasons is nigh-on perfect: W8 D1, F28 A7. 8/9 overs. 6/9 over 3.5.
Bet: Arsenal clean sheet @ 2.10 Lost (0-1)

Blackburn (10th, 12th) v Aston Villa (14th, 14th)
Match is IMPORTANT for Blackburn, VITAL for Villa.
Blackburn are 8 pts from a UEFA Cup place, not in with a realistic chance of getting there. Villa suddenly find themselves with 5 pts of relegation.
NO BETS

Chelsea (2nd, 2nd) v Tottenham (6th, 12th)
Match is VITAL for both.
Chelsea still in the title race. Spurs are looking to stay in the UEFA Cup places.

Spurs scored in 7 in a row away games, equalling best run under Jol. Chelsea have 4 cs in a row at home, haven't bettered that run since Mar 2005 when they had 7 in a row.

6 overs in a row at home for Chelsea. Most in a row under Mourinho. 3 in row away for Spurs. Never had more than that run under Jol.

Chelsea led last 4 at HT at home, never won more in a row under Mourinho. Only trailed once at HT at home under Mourinho (Bolton in Oct 2005). Both fixtures under Mourinho were level at HT. Spurs drawn about half of away fixtures at HT under Jol.
UM: Chelsea clean sheet @ 2.50 (2.1) would have won (1-0) but never came close to the price I wanted.
Bet: HT draw @ 2.64 WIN (0-0)
UM: under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 (2.02) would have won (1-0).
Bet: Robbie Keane to score @ 5.40 void, RK not even making the bench (thankfully)
OK, so I hate this market after last nights nightmare at Goodison, but at these odds I am diving straight back in. These odds are huge, RK has finally found his scoring boots after a slow start to the season. He hit a similar run at the end of last season and scored in 5 of Spurs last 7 games of the season. PS The price is shooting up, up to 5.6 after onlt 5 mins and I have just realised why - strong chance that RK will start on the bench in this one as Jol rests his players after Thursdays UEFA Cup game in Seville. Nugget.

Middlesbrough (12th, 10th) v Watford (last, 18th)
Match is IMPORTANT for Boro, VITAL for Watford.
It's almost time to stick a fork in Watford, 11 points from safety with 7 games to play, but a win here may give them hope of a comeback. A win for Boro should more or less make things safe for them.

Boro's home record against relegated sides in the last 3 seasons is poor, w4 d2 l3. However they have beaten all the relegation threatened sides this term.
Lost last home match to Man City. Watford have only 1 away win all season (West Ham) and 10 defeats from 15 matches.

Boro have conceded in last 5 at home. Watford have failed to register in 9/15 away matches.

Portsmouth (9th, 8th) v Man Utd (1st, 1st)
Match is IMPORTANT for Portsmouth, VITAL for United.
Portsmouth now 5 points adrift of UEFA Cup and running out of steam. All teams want to beat Utd though. United know that if they win 5/7 matches they are Champions.

Man U have 11 overs from 15 away; last season they had 14/19 overs. Not had consecutive unders in that time (0-1 last away match v Liverpool).

Reading (8th, 6th) v Liverpool (3rd, 5th)
Match is IMPORTANT for both.
Are Reading still challenging for UEFA? Or are they content now that they have done so well in the Prem? Liverpool have Champions League matches on their mind and have only 3rd or 4th place left as an option.

8 games away since Liverpool last trailed at the break. Previous to that the best they had done under Benitez was 5, at the end of last season. The only team to score a 1st half goal against Liverpool in their last 9 away was Newcastle. However, this certainly wasn't the toughest run of fixtures. Reading have led 8/15 at HT, but not against any of the big 3.

Liverpool have won 5/ last 8 away, but the only notable name in that bunch is Spurs.Lost at Newcastle and Blackburn in that run. Early in the season, 'Pool had 5 tough away fixtures on the bounce (Everton, Chelsea, Bolton, Man U, Arsenal) and lost them all. Wins at Wigan, Charlton, Watford and West Ham do not make them a sure thing to win at Reading in my book.
Bet: Lay Liverpool @ 1.90 Lost (1-2)

Sheff Utd (16th, 17th) v Newcastle (11th, 13th)
Match is VITAL for Sheff Utd, IMPORTANT for Newcastle.
Sheff Utd have got dragged right back into the relegation fight, only 1 pt above Charlton now. Defeat for the toon could make a relegation fight seem a possibilty.

Surprised to see that Newcastle have lost 4 away in a row only once in the last 3 seasons (a run that ended in Souness's sacking last season).

Wigan (16th, 19th) v Bolton (5th, 4th)
Match is VITAL for both.
Wigan just 3 pts above Charlton. Bolton want to stay in UEFA Cup places and still have an outside chance of 4th.

Wigan have 4 unders in a row at home. Have kept 3 clean sheets in a row. Bolton have scored a sinlge goal in each of their last 4 away matches.

Wigan won this match 2-1 last season, all the goals coming in a 20 min 2nd half spell.
Bet: over 2.5 goals @ 2.50 WON (1-3)